El precio del dólar en México ha fluctuado bastante en los últimos meses. El pasado jueves, el dólar estaba a $24.21 pesos por unidad, lo que representa un descenso de 0.92% respecto al viernes anterior. Sin embargo, el mercado financiero mexicano es muy volátil y cambia continuamente, lo que hace que esta información no sea la mejor indicación sobre el futuro del dólar. En este post, te ofreceremos una breve historia de como ha cambiado el precio del dólar en México durante el año 2019 para que sepas qué factores influyen en esta variación y puedas tomar decisiones afortunadas para tu negocio. ###

El precio del dólar en México hoy

Mexico’s peso is currently worth less than one dollar against the U.S. dollar, and has been on a steady decline since early 2016 when it was worth about twenty five pesos to the dollar. The devaluation of the Mexican currency has caused a rise in prices for goods and services in Mexico, as well as abroad.

The peso’s depreciation has had a significant impact on the Mexican economy, which is already one of the most anemic in Latin America. Inflation rates have skyrocketed, and many Mexicans are finding it harder to afford food, housing, and other necessities. Many businesses have also been affected by the devaluation of the peso, as they must now price their products in US dollars instead of Mexican pesos.

Despite all these problems, however, some argue that the devaluation of the peso is actually good for Mexico because it will make its exports more competitive abroad and help to stimulate economic growth.

La inflación en México

According to recent reports from the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), inflation in Mexico increased in February to 2.5%, compared with 1.5% recorded in January. The increase is mainly due to price increases for food, transportation, and housing. Inflation expectations also grew in early February, according to the Bank of Mexico’s bi-monthly survey of inflation expectations. This survey indicates that most respondents anticipate an increase in prices over the next six months, although there is considerable variation across sectors.

The main implication of this news is that policymakers should continue implementing stimulatory measures such as fiscal transfers and interest rate cuts in order to keep inflation within target levels. However, further spikes could occur if factors such as global commodity prices or wages go up faster than anticipated. In light of this uncertainty, investors are likely to remain cautious about investing in Mexican assets over the near term.

Los principales indicadores económicos en México

1. According to the World Bank, Mexico’s GDP per capita was $13, 910 in 2016. This makes Mexico one of the poorest countries in Latin America, and it has a relatively low-income population.

2. The unemployment rate was 5% in 2017, which is much lower than the national average of around 10%. However, there is still a high level of underemployment and poverty.

3. The peso has lost more than half its value against the U.S. dollar since 2006, making Mexico one of the most expensive countries in North America for goods and services.

4. Inflation was 2% in 2017, which is below the Mexican central bank’s target range of 2-6%. However, prices continue to rise faster than wages, leading to an increase in inequality and poverty (see chart below).

Income inequality in Mexico has increased sharply over recent years Source: World Bank data from 2016

5. The Mexican economy is heavily dependent on exports (68%) and tourism (12%). However, blue chip companies have been fleeing Mexico due to increasing levels of crime and corruption (see below). This has led to a decline in investment and growth rates over the past few years.

La balanza de pagos en México

La balanza de pagos en México muestra una mejora importante respecto al año pasado, debido principalmente al incremento de las exportaciones y la baja de gastos de consumo. Sin embargo, el sector privado continúa siendo netamente débil frente a los fondos públicos. La inversión en el país ha disminuido drásticamente debido a la incertidumbre sobre el futuro económico.

En diciembre del año pasado, el precio del dólar era de 18 pesos por unidad. Hoy, es de 31 pesos por unidad, lo que representa un incremento del 61%. Sin embargo, esto no significa que el mercado negro haya terminado; sino todo lo contrario: se han producido más cambios en el mercado financiero internacional, lo cual ha hecho que las divisas se valoren más caras. Así mismo, las importaciones han subido más rápidamente que las exportaciones.

Los riesgos que representa el dólar para la economía mexicana

What are the risks that come with the dollar’s rise in Mexico?

The recent increase in the value of the U.S. dollar has raised prices for imported goods in Mexico, as well as for exports destined for the United States. For Mexican consumers, this means higher costs for staple goods like food and gasoline. In addition, businesses that import materials or equipment may find their profits reduced because of the higher cost of imports. Overall, these price hikes could have a negative impact on Mexican economic growth this year.

However, there are also some benefits to be realized from the stronger U.S. dollar. For one, it should make Mexican exports more competitive on world markets and help create jobs in export-dependent sectors of the economy like manufacturing. Additionally, since many Mexicans hold dollars in savings accounts or invest them abroad, they will benefit from increased returns on those assets when translated into dollars at a stronger exchange rate. The extent to which these gains outweigh the costs is still an open question, but overall it looks like Mexico’s currency will continue to rise against the U.S. dollar this year.[1]

Conclusiones

The Mexican Peso has been in a tailspin for the past few months, and it doesn’t appear to be stopping anytime soon. The currency has lost ground against most major currencies, and it’s currently hovering at 18.10 MXN to the USD.

One reason for this depreciation of the peso is undoubtedly Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Mexican imports. Combined with uncertainty over NAFTA’s future and weak economic data, investors are fleeing Mexico in droves.

On one hand, this may seem like good news for those who are looking to take profits off the table. However, it could also lead to more inflation down the line if businesses can’t afford to import goods anymore. In addition, it could cause a domino effect as other countries start devaluing their currencies as well.

Ultimately, there is no sure way to know what will happen next with the Mexican Peso. But for now, things look pretty bleak for those invested in the currency…